ArmA 3's backstory - Geopolitics, Ho!

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Aqarius
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Re: ArmA 3's backstory - Geopolitics, Ho!

Post by Aqarius »

I got some time to look at the map a bit closer. Who posted that map, exactly? It's like the Muslim world was divided into "arabs","terrorists" and "what do you mean Malaysia is Muslim?"


A few points:

-WTF Iceland?

- SRJ still exists, but Macedonia is in an alliance with Albania

-Arabia: The pinkish Yemen implies that the UAE no longer cooperate with the US, and that implies the Bahrain naval base is no longer US-held. This would go a long way to empower Iran, as well as keep the emirates from stirring shit up. This would also give Iran immense power over the oil supplies of the middle east. The weird part here is that Iran isn't there in Turkey's place, since it's 75% Shia.

-Asia pivot: Would an economic collapse of the US drag China along with it? I mean, they are diversifying(although there doesn't seem to be any yellow in Africa on that map), but their growth is also slowing down. A total implosion of the US would shock them very thoroughly. Considering the CCP mandate is, implicitly, providing prosperity, perhaps shock them enough for... drastic consequences. This could be why Iran is as prominent as they are: it's not that they surged as much as the rest of the world fell around them. This, however, would raise the problem of India: if the US goes under and China follows, India would need to implode to not come out on top as the dominant regional power.

-Turkey: Hard fought by whom?
From Mustafa Kemal to the end of WW2, Turkey was, in effect, a one party state. The secular right were in charge until 1950, when they lost to the left. 10 years later, the army staged a coup, in order to "return the nation to the proper course" (purge the commies). Next elections, left won again, and 10 years later the army had another coup, to "restore democracy" (purge the commies). The next decade was a whirlwind of coalitions of the left, right, even islamists (One such 'right+islam' coalition invaded Cyprus.), capped off by one more coup, in order to "unite the country into a global economy" (purge the commies). What followed was a decade and a half of relative prosperity (and a guerilla war with Kurds/Marxists) straight up until 1997, when islamists were elected, and the army 'asked' the prime minister to step down.
Which brings us to the 21 century. The current AK-Party (no relations) is of the "not islamists, honest" variety, got into power in 2002, and is still going strong. At this point, Turkey averaged a coup every 10 years or so, so what gives? Well, there's the arrests,also the arrests,and let's not forget the arrests. Essentially, an islamist Turkey is not at all unlikely by 2035. The problem is that, unlike Iranians, Turks are Sunni. Now, during the cold war, the army secularists skewed heavily pro-NATO, while islamists yearned for the days of the Ottoman empire. AKP, however, continue to pursue an EU membership, at least optically.
This opens up a possibility: the arrests in the last decade and a half would indicate the Turkish military lost NATO a powerful supporter with the cold war dying down. A failing US, dragging EU down with it, would damage AKP, and the military could leverage the far-right into one more coup. This would make them both secular (like Iran presumably is) and anti-west. Also, the nationalists would have no problem with hating Greece. And, more importantly for us, this would give the military alliance Turkey is a member of every possible reason to get involved if, say, an island off the coast of Greece were to, say, go and declare independence and then descend into a civil war.



As a sidenote: The issue with oil isn't that there won't be oil. There will be oil. We can make oil. We can literally synthesize gasoline from thin air if we need it that badly. What there won't be is cheap oil. It's not "oil crisis", it's "energy crisis". The thing to note is that the price of everything and anything consists of material+labor+energy. For the last century, oil was so cheap that, basically, energy=oil=0. The whole deal with renewables is to change 'energy=oil' before 'oil!=0' makes food a luxury item.
Another thing I find interesting is that all these near future scenarios seem to just take for granted that this whole climate change thing kinda blows over on it's own and has no impact on anything :laugh:
[/allegedly]

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Kefirz
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Re: ArmA 3's backstory - Geopolitics, Ho!

Post by Kefirz »

I don't really want to go into the BI map, because it's all kinds of messed up and I skimmed over some fantasies about a ''Polish bloc'', but after you mentioned it, I watched Sparks video and I must say that the guy is a demagogue and nothing else.

His points about OPEC, weak/strong dollar or euro were just plain uneducated. Then he started his fantasies about WW1, completely ignoring the timeline of events and the objectives and scopes of campaigns. Although, the only valid point he made that oil was a goal for the British, but it was a strategic goal for them to power their navy and their operations were limited to Mesopotamia, to secure the supply lines.
By this time I started zoning out of his rants, but all those ''good points'' about oil producing were also quite wrong.
Yes Venezuelan exports are declining, and they will do so, but because of the rusted out pipes and ineffectiveness of the state owned industry (money has been only taken out, but no maintenance has been done).

Also, we all see the drop in oil prices, even a little kid knows there is too much supply for our demand, but nobody wants to lower quotas, so they just keep going on. The world's reserves of fossil fuels is still huge. As I said before, if extracting crude will become costlier than LTO or shale oil, then people will just switch over to those and keep on doing business as usual.


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Re: ArmA 3's backstory - Geopolitics, Ho!

Post by Sparks »

Another thing I find interesting is that all these near future scenarios seem to just take for granted that this whole climate change thing kinda blows over on it's own and has no impact on anything :laugh:
What climate change thing? It's cold out, there can't be global warming!
I watched Sparks video and I must say that the guy is a demagogue and nothing else.
Excuse me, I think you'll find I'm a demigod thank you very much.
Didn't go to demi school for four years just to be called "dema"...
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Kefirz
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Re: ArmA 3's backstory - Geopolitics, Ho!

Post by Kefirz »

I meant the guy in the video.
''I am not going against tanks'' - Tryteyker, MAT gunner.
''Downboated so much, it's an u-boat now.'' - Boberro.
''Sorry, I meant hon hon hon baguette baguette Eiffel Tower'' - Mabbott

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Re: ArmA 3's backstory - Geopolitics, Ho!

Post by SuicideKing »

I just made the longest reply ever. Then it wanted me to log in, when I already had. So I pressed "back". And lost everything.

:siiigh:
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Sparks
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Re: ArmA 3's backstory - Geopolitics, Ho!

Post by Sparks »

Lazarus plugin suicide.
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Re: ArmA 3's backstory - Geopolitics, Ho!

Post by Soviet »

CONSIDERING WHAT WE KNOW.

Tanoa factions: Go.

1. ANZAC/U.S. MEU/JSDF - BLUFOR
2. CSAT Chinese Naval Infantry - REDFOR
3. Russian VDV - INDFOR wild card
4. Local low-tech Guerrillas using modern day things like AK74s and RPG29s - 100% likely BLUFOR aligned independents

And I betcha five dollars there's an America-class LHA parked in some corner of the map if we're in it.
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Re: ArmA 3's backstory - Geopolitics, Ho!

Post by fer »

Predicting the future and devising a credible explanation for that map are two different tasks. Don't be too quick to write off The next 100 Years for the bonkers middle bit, because what it has to say about sea lanes and demographics is interesting. Worth a read, albeit for the themes not the details.

Also, I see that Mr Newman is still making bad comedy. I give you his finest moment: https://youtu.be/PyujQctZ9hw?t=3m9s

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