ArmA 3's backstory - Geopolitics, Ho!
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:10 am
Stemming from some discussion in the Folk ARPS Skype channel, I started writing an essay about how the modern world might end up in the state of ArmA 3, especially regarding the formation and rise of CSAT. There's some cool geopolitics that could very well lead to CSAT in a plausible manner.
First off, to quote ArmA 3's website:
Let's start our analysis with this - The Iran of 2035 is almost certainly secular. This is basically a requirement for them to be considered a serious ally by China, who has some significant issues with Muslim extremists in the former Central Asian SSRs and Tibetan territories. This is also a major requirement for CSAT to be a sensible choice of alliance for Turkey, whose government is highly secular by hard-fought choice.
Iran turning secular pretty much demands a major upheaval, and I'd say that upheaval could be well on its way - ISIS is throwing a wrench into things, but in general the modern Middle East (specifically Iraq and Syria) is falling into a proxy-war between Saudi-supported Sunni Muslims and Persian-supported Shi'ites. Given the strain this is already placing on Iran's economy, it makes sense for the religiously-backed government to collapse and for Iran to go secular ala Turkey. As mentioned before, this enables Iran to convincingly attract Turkey and China into its corner. Meanwhile, a secular government can step down the anti-Israel rhetoric and begin a period of rapprochement, removing one of the biggest obstacles to westward expansion. Similarly, the Arab League has largely ceased caring about the Israel question, and is more concerned with keeping the religious nutcases from overtaking and subsuming secular governments (I'm thinking most of Egypt and their internal conflict with the Muslim Brotherhood here). Iran's abandonment of a Shi'ite dominated government makes them much more palatable for the Arab League to align with.
China's position is an odd one geopolitically - it is stable, but more or less surrounded. To its north, it has Russia, a largely silent, but ever-present bear that it must keep passive and tolerant. China also has terrorism issues stemming from the aforementioned Muslim extremists in Central Asia, and its interests are increasingly likely to conflict with India's, both in Kashmir and in the Straits of Malacca. Most importantly, it is investing heavily in the stability and economic development of many Central and Southern African nations, while at the same time attempting to establish its dominance in the Spratly Islands and the Asian Pacific Rim in general. China's single largest "adversary" in this matter is the United States who has strongly buttressed Japan and South Korea as regional powers, "wheeled" towards Asia in foreign policy focus, and strongly supported interpretations of international law that favor Japanese, Vietnamese, Filipino, etc. claims to important territory in the waters surrounding China. Australia and its NATO ties through the Commonwealth are also a minor obstacle.
A key thing to keep in mind about China is that it does not follow the Western model of expansion through puppet governments and colonialism, but is more concerned about securing enough breathing room such that other nations cannot interfere with internal Chinese issues in the way that the United States has meddled so extensively in their dealings with Taiwan.
So what would bring Iran and China together to initially form the core of the Canton Protocol Strategic Alliance Treaty? In one word: India. Through arms deals with the Soviet Union / Russia as well as some apparent dealings with NATO (according to the A3 map), India has embarked on a military improvement plan that very much rivals China's, and this military really has two main objectives: Either fend off or finish off Pakistan, and exert Indian influence on the Indian Ocean and any surrounding countries. Their increased activities on the sea and in bordering countries would instantly bring them into a proxy war with China for influence over Southeast Asia, and their increasing anti-Pakistani ability both threatens China's claim to Kashmir and makes Iran very jittery, as Pakistan currently serves as an effective buffer against encroaching influence from the east. An alliance of China and a secular Iran enables them both to cooperate in limiting India's gain of influence in any particular arena.
Aside from India, Iran and China have two disparate goals - China's desire to expand their Pacific influence runs right into American-supported opposition, whereas Iran's westward expansion is met with happiness on the part of the Arab League (yay stability and economic growth!) and consternation on the part of NATO.
Oh yeah - what's going on with NATO? Well, they're not doing too hot. Both the US and the EU are in dire economic straits due to a multitude of issues, and they're bleeding influence heavily. This economic downturn means that they are having difficulty seeing to their worldwide commitments, especially when it comes to combating a resurgent Russia. We see how bad NATO's standing has gotten in that Finland and Poland, both of whom have very important reasons for not wanting to side with Russia, are siding with Russia because (presumably) they have no other choice if they wish to remain autonomous. Similarly, Turkey has left the NATO fold and sided with CSAT, presumably because CSAT has the clout to fend off Russian influence (something the Turks have never been happy with in the first place). They may have also had some mutual interests with Iran, considering there is no Kurdistan on the A3 map.
Speaking of Russkies, Russia is doing fairly well for itself in 2035, if not exactly as well as it would hope. They've cowed Ukraine anew, brought a good number of other former East Bloc members back into the fold and seem intent on continuing to pressure NATO in order to gain more of a buffer-zone between the Bundeswehr and Moscow. They show this desire for continued pressure on NATO in their extensive arms sales to CSAT - arms and equipment that will be used to expand Iranian influence westward and Chinese influence eastwards, putting pressure on NATO on both sides of the globe. The more pressure NATO feels, the more they'll crumble and the less threat the big four (US, Germany, Great Britain, France) pose to the continuation of Russia. The big point to make here is that Russia is not part of CSAT, merely a major trading partner who is supplying CSAT with equipment to further their own goals. I wouldn't be surprised if those T-100 Varsuks are actually Iranian license-built export versions of actual Russian vehicles, thus explaining their lackluster protection.
Interestingly, China's successes in the Pacific and Iran's successes in the Mediterranean are likely drawing Russian concern, for the next logical step for CSAT in general is to turn inwards and convert the former Central Asian SSRs to the CSAT fold, something that will directly threaten Russia's south.
So there we have it:
First off, to quote ArmA 3's website:
Second off, here's a map that was posted to the BIS forums prior to A3's release: http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/418/ar ... dblocs.jpgFormed at the apex of the Canton Protocol summits, this strategic alliance of states is built upon the goals of mutual defense, expanded global influence, and sustained economic growth.
Set against the context of foundering economies and civil unrest across the west, CSAT has risen in prominence over the last decade. Investment in shared civil and military technology and the aggressive pursuit of opportunities and partnerships throughout Asia, South America and North Africa has led to a sharp increase in strategic tension across the globe, as traditional spheres of power and influence are encroached upon.
Let's start our analysis with this - The Iran of 2035 is almost certainly secular. This is basically a requirement for them to be considered a serious ally by China, who has some significant issues with Muslim extremists in the former Central Asian SSRs and Tibetan territories. This is also a major requirement for CSAT to be a sensible choice of alliance for Turkey, whose government is highly secular by hard-fought choice.
Iran turning secular pretty much demands a major upheaval, and I'd say that upheaval could be well on its way - ISIS is throwing a wrench into things, but in general the modern Middle East (specifically Iraq and Syria) is falling into a proxy-war between Saudi-supported Sunni Muslims and Persian-supported Shi'ites. Given the strain this is already placing on Iran's economy, it makes sense for the religiously-backed government to collapse and for Iran to go secular ala Turkey. As mentioned before, this enables Iran to convincingly attract Turkey and China into its corner. Meanwhile, a secular government can step down the anti-Israel rhetoric and begin a period of rapprochement, removing one of the biggest obstacles to westward expansion. Similarly, the Arab League has largely ceased caring about the Israel question, and is more concerned with keeping the religious nutcases from overtaking and subsuming secular governments (I'm thinking most of Egypt and their internal conflict with the Muslim Brotherhood here). Iran's abandonment of a Shi'ite dominated government makes them much more palatable for the Arab League to align with.
China's position is an odd one geopolitically - it is stable, but more or less surrounded. To its north, it has Russia, a largely silent, but ever-present bear that it must keep passive and tolerant. China also has terrorism issues stemming from the aforementioned Muslim extremists in Central Asia, and its interests are increasingly likely to conflict with India's, both in Kashmir and in the Straits of Malacca. Most importantly, it is investing heavily in the stability and economic development of many Central and Southern African nations, while at the same time attempting to establish its dominance in the Spratly Islands and the Asian Pacific Rim in general. China's single largest "adversary" in this matter is the United States who has strongly buttressed Japan and South Korea as regional powers, "wheeled" towards Asia in foreign policy focus, and strongly supported interpretations of international law that favor Japanese, Vietnamese, Filipino, etc. claims to important territory in the waters surrounding China. Australia and its NATO ties through the Commonwealth are also a minor obstacle.
A key thing to keep in mind about China is that it does not follow the Western model of expansion through puppet governments and colonialism, but is more concerned about securing enough breathing room such that other nations cannot interfere with internal Chinese issues in the way that the United States has meddled so extensively in their dealings with Taiwan.
So what would bring Iran and China together to initially form the core of the Canton Protocol Strategic Alliance Treaty? In one word: India. Through arms deals with the Soviet Union / Russia as well as some apparent dealings with NATO (according to the A3 map), India has embarked on a military improvement plan that very much rivals China's, and this military really has two main objectives: Either fend off or finish off Pakistan, and exert Indian influence on the Indian Ocean and any surrounding countries. Their increased activities on the sea and in bordering countries would instantly bring them into a proxy war with China for influence over Southeast Asia, and their increasing anti-Pakistani ability both threatens China's claim to Kashmir and makes Iran very jittery, as Pakistan currently serves as an effective buffer against encroaching influence from the east. An alliance of China and a secular Iran enables them both to cooperate in limiting India's gain of influence in any particular arena.
Aside from India, Iran and China have two disparate goals - China's desire to expand their Pacific influence runs right into American-supported opposition, whereas Iran's westward expansion is met with happiness on the part of the Arab League (yay stability and economic growth!) and consternation on the part of NATO.
Oh yeah - what's going on with NATO? Well, they're not doing too hot. Both the US and the EU are in dire economic straits due to a multitude of issues, and they're bleeding influence heavily. This economic downturn means that they are having difficulty seeing to their worldwide commitments, especially when it comes to combating a resurgent Russia. We see how bad NATO's standing has gotten in that Finland and Poland, both of whom have very important reasons for not wanting to side with Russia, are siding with Russia because (presumably) they have no other choice if they wish to remain autonomous. Similarly, Turkey has left the NATO fold and sided with CSAT, presumably because CSAT has the clout to fend off Russian influence (something the Turks have never been happy with in the first place). They may have also had some mutual interests with Iran, considering there is no Kurdistan on the A3 map.
Speaking of Russkies, Russia is doing fairly well for itself in 2035, if not exactly as well as it would hope. They've cowed Ukraine anew, brought a good number of other former East Bloc members back into the fold and seem intent on continuing to pressure NATO in order to gain more of a buffer-zone between the Bundeswehr and Moscow. They show this desire for continued pressure on NATO in their extensive arms sales to CSAT - arms and equipment that will be used to expand Iranian influence westward and Chinese influence eastwards, putting pressure on NATO on both sides of the globe. The more pressure NATO feels, the more they'll crumble and the less threat the big four (US, Germany, Great Britain, France) pose to the continuation of Russia. The big point to make here is that Russia is not part of CSAT, merely a major trading partner who is supplying CSAT with equipment to further their own goals. I wouldn't be surprised if those T-100 Varsuks are actually Iranian license-built export versions of actual Russian vehicles, thus explaining their lackluster protection.
Interestingly, China's successes in the Pacific and Iran's successes in the Mediterranean are likely drawing Russian concern, for the next logical step for CSAT in general is to turn inwards and convert the former Central Asian SSRs to the CSAT fold, something that will directly threaten Russia's south.
So there we have it:
- CSAT is active containing India, expanding Iran's influence to the west and expanding China's security zone to the east (both at NATO's expense) while placating the Russian Federation to their north.
- NATO is marshaling their dwindling resources on the defensive, fending off a dual culture bomb in Europe from both a resurgent Russia and an on-the-rise Iran while trying to retain what little is left of their Pacific influence in South Korea, Japan and Australia.
- Russia is on the rise again, slowly encroaching into NATO territory to rebuild the Cold War-style buffer between them and the West, and temporarily using CSAT to further their goal of dismantling NATO. They're keeping a wary eye on China and Iran, however.